Global Herpes Market is Forecast to Grow at CAGR of 10.1%

Tuesday 10 April 2012, Amsterdam

The global herpes market is an attractive one. The market is expected to witness growth during the forecast period and to provide good opportunities for investors. The high growth that is expected in the market is attributed to a number of factors, including increasing awareness about herpes infections, and a growth in the diseased population. Many promising therapies, especially for Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections, are expected to be launched during the forecast period. The market is currently generic in nature, with few first in class molecules, and the current therapies provide only symptomatic treatment of infections - infections, once treated, can recur. The market, therefore, contains a significant unmet need, which needs to be resolved.


Global Herpes Market is Forecast to Grow at CAGR of 10.1%, Due to Growth in Diseased Population

See figure: Herpes Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2004-2018

The value of the global herpes market is estimated to have been approximately $4.2 billion in 2010, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.1% until reaching $9.1 billion by 2018. The market has limited scope for growth due to the presence of generic products and a lack of innovation in the pipeline products. The current treatment options serve the market needs, providing symptomatic treatment for herpes simplex and herpes zoster infections. There is current unmet need in the market for safe therapeutics, particularly for CMV infections. There are nine molecules in Phase III of clinical development, being developed for various herpes infections. The diseased population is expected to grow to approximately 158.6 million by 2018. The growth in immunosuppressed patients and transplant recipients will be the driver for this market. The herpes market has strong competition from generics.


Herpes Therapeutics Market is Forecast to Grow at a CAGR of 11.2%,
Despite Weak Pipeline and Presence of Generics in the Market

The herpes therapeutics market (herpes simplex and herpes zoster infections market) is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11.2% during the forecast period 2010-2018. The herpes therapeutics market has low unmet needs in terms of both efficacy and safety - the efficacy of the present therapeutics ranges from moderate to strong, with drugs such as Zovirax having significantly strong efficacy profiles. Therapeutic interventions for herpes simplex are limited to oral formulations. The herpes therapeutics market is generic and there are many brands available with low prices. There are few first-in-class molecules present in the herpes therapeutics pipeline. Of these few, BA-021 is filed in the US for herpes simplex infections and it is expected to launch soon. In 2010, the diseased population of herpes simplex was estimated to be 120.3 million. The major driver of the market is the increase in diseased population, while a lack of awareness and social stigma are considered to be restraints on the herpes therapeutics market. Zostavax is the only vaccine approved in the US for the prophylactic treatment of herpes zoster infections. The launch of vaccine candidates such as GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals’ GSK1437173A vaccine and V212 from Merck & Co. is expected in the coming years for herpes zoster infections


Launch of New Treatment Options Can Satisfy Current Unmet Needs of CMV Infections Market

The global CMV infection market was valued at $0.7 billion in 2010. The emergence of novel therapies, which concentrate on increased safety, has combined with increasing patient awareness and compliance to stimulate the growth of this market. The majority of pipeline products are biologics, contrary to the current marketed products, which are small molecules. The growth of the market can be attributed to the increasing number of AIDS/HIV patients, and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) and solid organ transplant recipients, all of which experience immunosuppression. The toxicity of the antiviral drugs used for the treatment of congenital CMV represents an unmet need in the existing treatment. Due to the long treatment duration of the antiviral drugs currently used in for the pre-emptive or prophylactic treatment of CMV infections in HSCT or SOT recipients, the chances of developing drug-related toxicity from that treatment is relatively high. Patients’ development of resistance to current antiviral therapy is also a limitation for growth of this market. New treatment options, which are currently in Phase III, such as TransVax and Adoptive Cellular Therapy, are expected to satisfy the unmet needs of the market.