The table above presents the key metrics in the seven major pharmaceutical markets for the microvascular complications of diabetes (MCD).Sales for Microvascular Complications of Diabetes by Region 2012–2022
This report focuses on pharmaceutical sales for MCD in the 7MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). The 7MM MCD pharmaceutical market in the 2012 base year was $3.6 billion, including both branded and generic drugs. At 51% of the overall MCD market, the US is clearly the dominant market, totaling $1.8 billion in branded and generic pharmaceutical sales. This is due to the significantly higher prices of pharmaceuticals in the US, as well as the higher diagnosed prevalence rates of diabetes and its microvascular complications. This US dominance is not as pronounced as in some of the other pharmaceutical markets, however, because the diabetic nephropathy and neuropathy segments of the MCD markets are highly dominated by generic drugs in the US, and the prices for generic drugs are not substantially higher in the US than in other markets, which is usually the case for branded drugs. The only segment of the MCD market where the US is not dominant is with the diabetic nephropathy segment, where Japan is dominating with 45.9%. This is due to significantly higher prices of angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and their wider usage, compared with the other markets.
The next-largest country-specific market for all microvascular complications combined was Japan, at 27.8% of the 7MM MCD market, totaling $1 billion. Average pharmaceutical prices are significantly higher in Japan than in the other countries covered in this report, which contributed to Japan’s very high, overall sales figures. The 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK) makes up 21.5% of the 7MM MCD market with $777m in sales.
Over the forecast period, the global MCD market will almost double, reaching $6.4 billion in 2022 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.8%. The US market will grow most rapidly because it will have the fastest increase in the overall prevalence of MCD; this is attributed to the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the US, which is primarily due to the skyrocketing epidemic of obesity in this country. GlobalData anticipates that the launch of atrasentan in 2018 in the 7MM will be the second major driver in increasing global diabetic nephropathy sales, which will reach $1.8 billion at a CAGR of 9.7%. The US market for diabetic nephropathy will grow particularly fast, reaching $1 billion at a CAGR of 16%. This fast growth is based on the assumption that atrasentan’s price will be much higher in the US than in the other markets.
Approval of Eylea for DME in 2014, coupled with a decreasing off-label usage of Avastin (bevacizumab) over the forecast period, will be the drivers of the global diabetic retinopathy market which will reach $2.7 billion in 2022, at a CAGR of 6.6%. As the diabetic neuropathy market is being overtaken by generic drugs, the only driver during the forecast period, apart from the increasing prevalence of the disease, will be a slow increase in the opioid consumption up until 2017. The diabetic neuropathy market will reach $1.8 billion in 2022, at a CAGR of 2.1%.
The table below presents the drivers and barriers in the global MCD market during the forecast period from 2012–2022.
