Cubicin will be the leading antibacterial drug in 2017 with over $1bn in revenue

Thursday 2 May 2013, Amsterdam

A new report shows that Cubist Pharmaceuticals’ Cubicin will be the leading antibacterial drug in 2017, with revenue over $1bn. In that year, it will account for around 2.5% of the global antibiotics market. Other drugs forecast to experience strong revenue growth include Optimer Pharmaceuticals’ Dificid. Revenue for that drug will grow with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) above 25% through to 2023. These findings appear in Antibacterial Drugs: World Market Prospects 2013-2023, published in March 2013.

Our forecasts significantly slower revenue growth for much of the antibacterial drugs market to 2023, however. The cephalosporins submarket will remain as the leading sector of the market throughout the forecast period 2013 to 2023. That sector accounted for more than a quarter of antibiotic revenues in 2011, although only one drug, AstraZeneca/Forest Laboratories’ Zinforo, is protected by patents in leading markets. The penicillin and carbapenem submarkets will grow slowly to 2023, with no mid- or late-stage candidates in the pipeline for these sectors.

Richard Lang, a pharmaceutical market analyst, said: “Continued growth for all sectors will rely on the launch of new antibacterial drugs throughout this decade. There are some promising new therapies in late-stage trials, including Trius Therapeutics’ tedizolid and Durata Therapeutics dalbavancin. However, with resistance developing rapidly for some, the best current antibacterial drugs, more therapies are needed urgently. It may be time to look at new approaches to fighting bacterial infections.

“While big pharma has held back from investing too heavily in antibacterial drug development, there are many small biotechs tackling novel approaches to fighting bacterial infections. These include biologics such as monoclonal antibodies, highly specific small molecule drugs and vaccines. Most of the late-stage pipeline, though, is dominated by drugs fitting into traditional antibacterial classes. Three new cephalosporins could be launched by the end of 2015, for example.”

Our new study forecasts the world antibacterial drugs market to 2023, as well as providing forecasts for 26 leading antibacterial drugs from six market sectors:

• Cephalosporins
• Penicillins
• Fluoroquinolones
• Macrolides
• Carbapenems
• Other agents.

The report also forecasts leading national markets for antibiotics. Sales of leading products were high in developed markets in 2012, with the US accounting for more than a quarter of all revenues. Demand for antibacterial drugs is also high in emerging markets. For 2012, visiongain estimates the Chinese antibacterial drugs market was worth more than $6bn. Generic cephalosporins and penicillins accounted for much of that revenue. Growth in emerging markets will be much faster than that in developed markets over the coming 10 years, despite efforts from regulators to cut antibiotic prescribing and over-the-counter (OTC) sales.