OpportunityAnalyzer: Autism Spectrum Disorder - Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2018

Monday 17 March 2014, Amsterdam

Table above presents the key metrics for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), also known as autism, in the six major pharmaceutical markets covered in this report (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) for patients ages 0–19 during the forecast period from 2012–2018.

Flat Growth in the ASD Market Expected from 2012–2018

The new report estimated the 2012 sales for ASD in patients ages 0–19 was approximately $1.44 billion across the six major pharmaceutical markets covered in this report: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. The US contributed the majority of these sales, generating an estimated $238m. By the end of the forecast period in 2018, sales are forecast to decline to $1.41 billion at a negative Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of (0.4%) over the six-year period. Although only the 5EU markets are forecast to experience sales growth over the forecast period, with a CAGR of 3.1%, the majority of sales will still come from the US, which will represent 98% of the market value in 2018.


Major drivers of the growth of the ASD market over the forecast period include:
 

• The approval and expected launch of the atypical anti-psychotic, Latuda, across all of the six major markets (6MM) will stimulate growth at the end of the forecast period. Namenda is also expected to generate increased sales in the US following its approval as an ASD treatment.
• The introduction of three new first-in-class treatments in the US markets will provide physicians with much-needed new treatments for the numerous core and non-core symptoms of ASD.
• Increasing social awareness of this disorder can lead to increased and earlier diagnosis rates.

Major barriers for the ASD market over the forecast period include:
 

• The unknown etiology and pathophysiology of ASD prevents the development of effective treatments and diagnostic tools.
• The patent expiries of Abilify (aripiprazole) and Namenda will lead to decreased sales as a result of generic erosion.
• Some key opinion leaders (KOLs) believe that the drug formulations of some pipeline products may not be well-tolerated by many patients, thereby limiting their target patient pool.